Mortgage Commentary for Today’s Washington State Mortgage Rates
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Tuesday’s bond market is in negative territory following much stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets have reacted favorably to the same data, pushing the Dow up 84 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, but due to strength late yesterday, we should see little change in today’s Washington state mortgage rates if comparing to yesterday’s morning pricing.
Despite the ability of the stock markets to hold their morning gains yesterday, the bond market rallied as the day progressed, erasing the losses from earlier in the day. That led many lenders to improve Washington state mortgage pricing during afternoon hours Monday. This means that today’s early selling in bonds simply offsets the gains from yesterday afternoon, keeping Washington state mortgage rates close to yesterday’s morning levels.
Today’s only relevant economic data was November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) by the Conference Board. It showed a surprising spike in consumer confidence with a reading of 56.0. This was a far cry from October’s revised reading of 40.9 and forecasts of 42.5. That, without a doubt, makes the data unfavorable for the bond market and Washington state mortgage rates because rising confidence means consumers are more willing to spend money and make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this news raises optimism about economic growth. However, long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds are more appealing to investors in weaker economic conditions. I guess the bright spot in this release is that the data is not considered to be one of the most important reports we see each month. It is considered to be moderately important to Washington state mortgage rates, or we would have seen a noticeable increase in this morning’s rates.
Tomorrow has two reports scheduled that we need to watch, one during morning hours and the other in the afternoon. The first is the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers at 8:30 AM ET. This index is expected to show an upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It’s the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and Washington state mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 2.6%, down from the previous estimate of 3.1%.
Also tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. That information is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and Washington state mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises. More times than not though, this report will not influence the markets enough to cause intra-day changes to Washington state mortgage rates, but the potential to do so does exist.
Rate Lock Advice for Today’s Washington State Mortgage Rates
If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Washington state mortgage rates, I would…
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now….
This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float today’s Washington state mortgage rates based on the current mortgage market. Your individual situation may be different. Contact me if you would like advice for your particular circumstances.
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